Bluff Catcher KK OOP vs Guy I stacked
Very loose table. 4 players to each flop. Typical Mud Pit Low Limit Poker. I had just stacked this guy with AQ vs KK on a Q73 rainbow board after we got it all in on the flop and I turn a Ace. This guy started calling all my raises. 1 hour goes buy and this hand happens.
$1/$2 live. I open UTG to $10 with K♠K♦, get 4 callers → pot $50.
Flop: J♣ 3♠ 4♠ ($50)
I bet $25, one caller.
Perfect sizing. Half-pot here keeps in dominated jacks and draws, and still applies pressure to 88–TT. I don’t want to over bet multiway on this texture, because sets and combo draws exist, but this bet is clean.
Turn: 6♠ ($100)
Front door spade draw completes.
I check, villain bets $40, I call with K♠.
Checking controls the pot and lets villain bluff or value-bet worse. I hold the second-nut blocker (K♠), so calling is mandatory—folding would be too tight, and check-raising accomplishes nothing but isolating myself vs. flushes.
River: Q♦ ($180)
I both check. I show KK (with K♠), he tables 5♦ and… nothing.
This is classic live-spew from a tilted player—he likely tried to “represent the flush” or bluff small because of residual emotion from the prior hand. The weak sizing ($40 into $100) is the tell: semi-bluffs and weak stabs often price themselves that way.
Analysis
- Preflop: 9/10. Size is fine UTG at $1/$2, but go $12–$15 next time with four loose callers behind.
- Flop: 9/10. Excellent sizing and value target.
- Turn: 10/10. Correct pot control, perfect bluff-catcher selection (K♠).
- River: 10/10. Checking down is optimal; no thinner value to extract, and I induce bluffs from exactly this kind of villain.
Overall line: A+ discipline, zero leaks. I allowed an emotional opponent to hang himself—a textbook
This is the heart of profitable bluff-catching. The right call–fold threshold on the river is determined by pot odds, which tell I how often my opponent must be bluffing for a call to break even.
- Formula
Bluff frequency needed=Call Amount \ Pot size + Call Amount
If villain’s bluff frequency > that number → call.
If it’s lower → fold.
- Apply to my hand
At the river, the pot was $180, and let’s assume villain could have bet any amount.
Villain Bet | Pot After Bet | Call Amount | Bluff % Needed | Example Interpretation |
$40 | $220 | $40 | 18% | I only need him bluffing 1 in 5 times — trivial call vs tilted opponent. |
$90 | $270 | $90 | 33% | He must be bluffing 1/3 of the time — still fine if he’s emotionally unbalanced. |
$150 | $330 | $150 | 45% | Now I need him bluffing nearly half the time — more marginal. |
$200 | $380 | $200 | 53% | Overbet sizing — fold unless I have strong reads or blocker coverage. |
- Context
At $1/$2 live:
- Small bets (¼–½ pot) are underbluffed → I can call wider, especially with blockers.
- Large bets (¾ pot–pot+) are almost never bluffs unless the opponent is tilted or hyper-aggressive → tighten up.
- Overbets (1.25x+ pot) are value-heavy → fold almost everything except the top of my range.
My K♠K♦ with the K♠ blocker makes an ideal call versus normal or small river bets, because I:
- Block the nut flush (A♠X♠).
- Unblock all missed straight bluffs (A5, 65, 75, etc.).
If the villain had fired $120+ into $180, that’s where folding becomes correct—I’d need him bluffing ≥ 40%, which most 1/2 players simply aren’t.
- Simple rule of thumb for live play
- Call ≤ ½-pot bets if I have a relevant blocker or bluff-catcher.
- Evaluate carefully ⅔–pot to full-pot bets — need clear reads.
- Fold to over bets unless opponent has proven bluffing frequencies or tilt history.
